Methodology
Every product we track gets four scores from 0 to 100, a verdict, and a platform-fit profile. The goal is to compress dozens of weak Chinese-side signals into a single decision a Western seller can act on the same day.
Demand score
Combines 1688 sales volume, review volume, positive-to-total ratio, and cross-platform signals (Xiaohongshu post growth, Douyin live-commerce heat, influencer mentions) into a 0–100 score. We log-scale raw counts so a single viral product can't drown out a steady mid-tier seller.
Margin score
Starts from the 1688 unit price in CNY, converts to USD, then projects a realistic Western retail price using a band-multiple model (cheaper items earn higher markups, expensive items tighter ones). We assume a 35% fee/shipping reserve. Margins under 3× cost are penalised; over 5× are rewarded.
Risk score
Higher means more dangerous to sell. We weight negative review patterns (fake/quality/fragile/size complaints), regulated category flags (medical, baby, battery, cosmetic), and brand/IP red flags. A pattern of severe complaints alone forces an Avoid verdict.
Novelty score
Captures "rising in China but still rare in the West". We attempt to fetch Amazon and Etsy result counts for each product; few competitors bumps novelty up, saturated markets pull it down. When we can't reach those sites, an operator can enter the count manually and the score re-runs.
Verdict rules
| Verdict | Rule |
|---|---|
| Strong Buy | demand ≥ 75 AND margin ≥ 70 AND risk ≤ 35 |
| Test | demand ≥ 60 AND margin ≥ 55 AND risk ≤ 55 |
| Watch | demand ≥ 50 AND novelty ≥ 60 AND risk ≤ 70 |
| Avoid | risk ≥ 70, OR legal/IP risk high, OR severe complaint pattern |
Platform fit
The same product gets four separate scores for Amazon, Etsy, Shopify, and TikTok Shop. Amazon rewards low returns; Etsy rewards aesthetic and gift cues; Shopify rewards ad-friendly margin; TikTok Shop rewards visual and live-commerce signals. We name the best-fit platform on the product page so you can match the right channel.
What we won't do
- Copy review text verbatim. Reviews are summarised, never reposted.
- Promise profitability. Every figure is hedged as "estimated".
- Recommend products in regulated categories without a flag.
- Hide the Avoid list. Calling out bad picks is half the value.
All figures are estimates based on available signals and may change. This is not financial advice and no profitability is guaranteed.